Friday, December 19, 2003

Reading all Night

I used to read through the night all the time. Now, I usually stop at 2:00 or 3:00 am. Unless it is a really gripping one, of course. I do take books with me everywhere. Mostly I read at home, but I also read in the car, while waiting for Liping doing her shopping, while sitting at the dentist -- simply everywhere.

The books I got now are special, though. There is so much useful information about sailing in there, that it would get lost if I were to read it real fast. So what I am doing is reading three books at the same time, bit by bit, in order to be able to absorb. I just finished Bernard Moitessier's first book Sailing to the Reefs and it might make it to the top of the list as my all-time-favorite sailing book. That title is being held by another one of his, a world wide bestseller called The Long Way.

The other two I am reading are both trimaran books. I want to know just what has changed in the world of multihulls over the last 40 years or so. Especially in these older books you find a lot of stuff in what to avoid when buying a boat and all kinds of neat little tricks on how to fix things. Or how to keep eggs when the fridge has died and stuff like that. How to preserve your fish in "cans" using a pressure cooker. Most of this I know, since I have been reading books like that intensively since 1983, but once in a while a completely new technique comes up.

And there is no doubt in my mind that all this reading has prepared me far better for unexpected situations than other sailors who have spent the same amount of time actually sailing. Experience is best, but second-hand experience comes right after that.

Wednesday, December 17, 2003

Adventure!

To tell the truth I don't much like "adventures" while they are happening. It's later, often a considerable time later, when they seem to be fun and entertaining. Here's my favorite quote on the subject:

Quote:
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"We are plain quiet folk and have no use for adventures. Nasty disturbing uncomfortable things! Make you late for dinner! I can't think what anybody sees in them."
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But yes, having had them, now that is altogether a good thing! I would have nothing worthwhile to write about otherwise.

On the other hand, I just stumbled across this one from Alain Gerbault:

Quote:
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"Adventure means risking something; and it is only when we are doing that that we know really what a splendid thing life is and how splendidly it can be lived... The man who dares never does; the man who never risks never wins. It is far better to venture and fail than to lie on the hearthrug like a sleepily purring cat. Only fools laugh at failure; wise men laugh at the lazy and the too-contented and at those who are so timid that they dare undertake nothing."
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Taiwan Independence?

Funny things happening lately. I never thought I would agree with the top generals of the military anywhere, but since those guys came out of the woodwork and strongly condemned Taiwan's president's attempt to call for a referendum, I find myself warming to them. According to the original report, 22 top-ranking generals of the Taiwan military consider the referendum or any other attempt to steer the island towards independence dangerous.

What I find a bit confusing, is the fact that the Ministry of National Defense (MND) came out to say that this information was untrue. I thought I saw one of the guys on TV though.

~~~~~

When the President was first sworn in four years ago, he was going to set the course towards independence right away. Then he had a top-secret meeting with the top brass -- and the issue of independence all but disappeared until the campaigning for the next presidential election started just a little while ago.

Now the President is in a bit of a bind. He only won last time because another candidate split the majority - and that is not going to happen this time. Another reason he got what he got is the independence issue. And that one gets trickier and trickier all the time.

~~~~~

One thing is for sure. If those guys continue to pull the whiskers of the dragon across the Taiwan Straits, Liping and I may have to move a lot sooner than we had intended. I sure as hell don't plan to watch yet another civil war from anything resembling close proximity.

Tuesday, December 16, 2003

Day 22

I was "moist" from my mother's birthday on March 17 until I went "dry" November 24. The goal is a minimum of three months.

~~~~~~~~~~

Still completely dry and Saturday I even went to the pub where I imbibed only tonic water. The really strange thing, which has never happened before, is that I didn't even have the slightest desire for a real beer.

Maybe it is because of a friend and neighbor in KrautLand, who is in the process of dying from cirrhosis of the liver caused by - what else? - alcoholic liver disease. Or maybe it is because I have developed a taste for Holsten Non-Alcoholic* of which I recently bought more than ten cases. Popped the eyes of the saleswoman, too.

Still, a friend tried to tell me that beer is OK and that it's only hard liquor which does the real damage. Not so!

I checked that out on the net, not because I didn't know the answer, but because I like to go into discussions like this with the ammunition of a few links to support what I am saying.

Any alcohol (even beer) can damage the liver ...

Study Links Beer Drinking, Pork Consumption to Alcoholic Liver Disease.

"In men who drink over a period of years, the equivalent of as little as 2 ounces a day (20 ounces of wine, 40 ounces of beer, or 6 ounces of whiskey) can cause liver damage." (40 ounces = 1.18 liters)

"Moderate alcohol consumption does not cause liver disease, but more than 80 grams of alcohol per day (=4 shots of whiskey, 13 oz. of wine, or 32 oz. of beer) generally is felt to be the threshold above which cirrhosis can occur." (32 ounces = 0.95 liters)

I have easily been above the threshold for more than 20 years. And I DO have a fatty liver - even saw a picture of it... So I guess, I'll stick with my Holsten "non-alcoholic" beer for the time being.

More can be found here at Google.

Ah, yeah... Since I am busy counting days anyway... Another 25 days until the due date. :-))) I wonder whether Ulani will look more Chinese or more German. Or whether she'll look like some beautiful mixture in between.

(* That may not work for everybody. Here's more.)

Peace And Boat Drinks
Overconsumption Over The Ages

People do over consume. This is nothing new. My God, look at the pyramids, The Louvre, Buckingham, the Great Wall, the Hanging Gardens, Colossus of Rhodes.

Still, it looks as if we are getting better and better at it. ;-))

About ballet & music classes.... I dunno what it's like over there, but here it is torture plain and simple. It has nothing to do with culture - and everything to do with fake pretend aspiring middle-class bullshit. Keeping up with the Joneses in a new dimension. My kids can do better than yours and I can afford more and more expensive classes than you can. It really disgusts me. And the kids hate it. Not when they are very little, of course, because daddy and mommy are beaming and they are just performing in order to garner the praise of the adults. Later on it's a different picture though. Those guys go to school all day long and then they go to special classes until 10:00 pm. And THEN they go home to do their homework. They all go to bed past midnight. They are so tired in the evening classes that they literally fall asleep on their chairs. Most of them do it six days a week, some go to special classes seven days a week.

They never have time to really play - not in this city they don't - and if they have a few minutes on the weekend, all they can do is watch TV and play computer games. It might be different in the country-side, I can't vouch for that. In that respect this city is about the worst for kids I can possibly imagine.

And home schooling? I guess there's simply good as well as bad. Some misguided people don't think of the overall picture and those kids then have the equivalent of a Koran school education. Bad news that. But others are apparently doing an excellent job. We intend to try and we will certainly try to do an excellent job.

UNESCO recently criticized Germany for "the absence of organized pre-school learning". And here I thought that kids were supposed to spend their time playing and figuring things out for themselves before they are put in the brain-washing straight-jacket which is called school. And apparently, the only good solution is to send kids to school all day long as opposed to only in the morning as they have done in KrautLand for generations. No wonder we are all so uncultured and under-educated!

I do have to admit that there is a problem though. The lower social strata and especially the many immigrants are having a really tough time right now. I just don't think the way to fix this is to fuck it up completely for everybody.

Sunday, December 14, 2003

Books, Presents & Gifts

When I give material stuff, it's a book...

Same here. Liping never gets tired of books and neither do I. It may get a bit repetitive, but the only thing I would really like to get as a present is a good novel.

For my parents it is mostly tickets for a play, a concert or something like that or else they might get an overland bus trip or a cruise on a ship. Last time they got this one (www.hurtigruten.com) from their four sons together. My ancestors from my father's side come from Norway and the trip goes through many fjords all the way up to the North Cape in the Arctic.

The 2004 one is still in the planning stages somewhere in the Mediterranean.

What I'd really like to get them one day is this one (www.aranui.com) -- but I think right now it is more than a little bit above the budget. This isn't a cruise-ship, but the regular supply ship for the remoter islands of French Polynesia.

I've pretty much given up on books for other people, though. Time and again I find that they don't read them. It looks as if they have more important things to do than read books. Maybe reading the newspaper or magazines, I wouldn't know. Or perhaps everyday routine life is eating up all their time.

Just a little while ago I mentioned that I got a big box of 16 old and rare books via StevPete [Thanks again, Steve!!!] and a friend of mine mentioned that those books would last him ten years or more. I very much doubt that they will last me more than a couple or three months.
22 Rules of Trading

(from http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/index.asp by John Mauldin)

1. Never, under any circumstance add to a losing position.... ever! Nothing
more need be said; to do otherwise will eventually and absolutely lead to
ruin!

2. Trade like a mercenary guerrilla. We must fight on the winning side and
be willing to change sides readily when one side has gained the upper hand.

3. Capital comes in two varieties: Mental and that which is in your pocket
or account. Of the two types of capital, the mental is the more important
and expensive of the two. Holding to losing positions costs measurable sums
of actual capital, but it costs immeasurable sums of mental capital .

4. The objective is not to buy low and sell high, but to buy high and to
sell higher. We can never know what price is "low." Nor can we know what
price is "high." Always remember that sugar once fell from $1.25/lb to 2
cent/lb and seemed "cheap" many times along the way.

5. In bull markets we can only be long or neutral, and in bear markets we
can only be short or neutral. That may seem self-evident; it is not, and it
is a lesson learned too late by far too many.

6. "Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent,"
according to our good friend, Dr. A. Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns
and markets are enormously inefficient despite what the academics believe.

7. Sell markets that show the greatest weakness, and buy those that show
the greatest strength. Metaphorically, when bearish, throw your rocks into
the wettest paper sack, for they break most readily. In bull markets, we
need to ride upon the strongest winds... they shall carry us higher than
shall lesser ones.

8. Try to trade the first day of a gap, for gaps usually indicate violent
new action. We have come to respect "gaps" in our nearly thirty years of
watching markets; when they happen (especially in stocks) they are usually
very important.

9. Trading runs in cycles: some good; most bad. Trade large and
aggressively when trading well; trade small and modestly when trading
poorly. In "good times," even errors are profitable; in "bad times" even
the most well researched trades go awry. This is the nature of trading;
accept it.

10. To trade successfully, think like a fundamentalist; trade like a
technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a
trade, but also that we understand the market's technicals. When we do,
then, and only then, can we or should we, trade.

11. Respect "outside reversals" after extended bull or bear runs. Reversal
days on the charts signal the final exhaustion of the bullish or bearish
forces that drove the market previously. Respect them, and respect even
more "weekly" and "monthly," reversals.

12. Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed
confusion; simplicity breeds elegance.

13. Respect and embrace the very normal 50-62% retracements that take
prices back to major trends. If a trade is missed, wait patiently for the
market to retrace. Far more often than not, retracements happen... just as
we are about to give up hope that they shall not.

14. An understanding of mass psychology is often more important than an
understanding of economics. Markets are driven by human beings making human
errors and also making super-human insights.

15. Establish initial positions on strength in bull markets and on weakness
in bear markets. The first "addition" should also be added on strength as
the market shows the trend to be working. Henceforth, subsequent additions
are to be added on retracements.

16. Bear markets are more violent than are bull markets and so also are
their retracements.

17. Be patient with winning trades; be enormously impatient with losing
trades. Remember it is quite possible to make large sums trading/investing
if we are "right" only 30% of the time, as long as our losses are small and
our profits are large.

18. The market is the sum total of the wisdom ... and the ignorance...of
all of those who deal in it; and we dare not argue with the market's
wisdom. If we learn nothing more than this we've learned much indeed.

19. Do more of that which is working and less of that which is not: If a
market is strong, buy more; if a market is weak, sell more. New highs are
to be bought; new lows sold.

20. The hard trade is the right trade: If it is easy to sell, don't; and if
it is easy to buy, don't. Do the trade that is hard to do and that which
the crowd finds objectionable. Peter Steidelmeyer taught us this twenty
five years ago and it holds truer now than then.

21. There is never one cockroach! This is the "winning" new rule submitted
by our friend, Tom Powell.

22. All rules are meant to be broken: The trick is knowing when... and how
infrequently this rule may be invoked!